Looked through leaked Black Friday ads online?  Made a list of items to be purchased? Checked it twice?  It seems to me that no matter how hard you try to prepare for Black Friday, it’s always difficult to determine whether an advertised deal is actually a good deal or a deal at all.

It’s even worse when stores mark up the regular price the week before and try to convince you that you’re getting a huge 50% discount on the item! I’ve always wanted to do a price analysis and luckily this is where Gazaro comes in. Shameless plug: Gazaro gives you an easy to use price comparison interface, price history charts, and generated deal scores that help you determine whether to line up at 5am or sleep in and buy later.

Here’s some quick blurbs on how the different features of  Gazaro work so that you know what I’m talking about in this article:

Deal score
Gazaro rates every deal between 0 and 10 by looking at historical prices, how often things come on sale, what other retailers are selling it for now, and what others have sold it for in the past.

All time lows
All time low prices are taken from Gazaro’s database. These prices may not be shown on the price trend graphs if they occurred outside the range of the graph.

Price trend graphs and Price History
Gazaro is constantly tracking the price changes of items from numerous stores. These prices are plotted on a graph to visualize possible price trends. The price history of an item can also be viewed in table form.

With these resources at hand, I’ve taken a stab at finding some hot Black Friday deals and some that are ice cold.  Here it is, the Black Friday 5 -> 5 HOT and NOT deals of Black Friday 2009.

All prices stated in this post are accurate as of posting time and are subject to change.

5 Hot Deals

1.  Sony – BRAVIA 1000W 5.1-Ch. Home Theater System w/ 5-Disc Upconvert DVD Player at Best Buy

Advertised Black Friday price: $279.99
Regular price: $429.99
All-time lowest price: $279.99
Deal Score: 9.4

Looking at the price trending chart below, we can see that the price of this product has been consistently been varying around $410.  Charts for Amazon.com and PC Connection for this product also show similar trends.  This is the lowest price this item has ever been – definitely a good deal!

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Sony BRAVIA Home Theater System at Best Buy

2.  Fantom Drives GreenDrive 1TB External eSATA/USB 2.0 Hard Drive at PC Mall

Advertised Black Friday price: $59.99
Regular Price: $124.95
All time lowest price: $59.99
Deal score: 9.3

PC Mall previously held the prize for lowest price of $69.99 for this item, but they’re back with an even lower price for Black Friday.  Other stores such as Buy.com and CompUSA are offering this hard drive for at least $50 more (at $109.99) and do not appear to be dropping.  Oddly enough, we can see Newegg.com on an opposite trend and have been increasing the price of this hard drive.  I’m definitely staying away from that!

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Fantom Drives GreenDrive 1TB at PC Mall

3.  Sony Stereo Speakers with Remote SRS-ZX1 at Sony Style

Advertised Black Friday Price: $149.99
Regular Price: $399.99
All time lowest price: $149.99
Deal score: 9.9

Save $250?!  This is too good to be true – and yes it kind of  is.  As you can tell by the price trend graph,  Sony Style has actually been offering this item consistently for $299.99 since June, so you’re actually only saving $150 (which is still pretty darn good to me).  Either way, this is still a great deal since other stores are offering it for $225 or more, and this price of $149.99 is the lowest it has ever been.

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Sony Stereo Speakers SRS-ZX1 at Sony Style

4.  Lexmark X4975 Professional Wireless 3-in-1 with Automatic Document Feeder Color Inkjet Printer

Advertised Black Friday Price: $88.99
Regular Price: $229.99
All time lowest price: $88.99
Deal Score: 9.9

This wireless 3-in-1 is at its lowest price yet.  All other stores are selling it for at least double the price so its definitely a good time to buy.  I’d buy it just to try wireless printing! (Am I the only one that hasn’t tried a wireless printer yet?)

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Lexmark X4975 Printer at Office Depot

5.  Sandisk Ultra II CompactFlash Memory Card, 8GB at Office Depot

Advertised Black Friday Price: $19.99
Regular Price: $49.99
All time lowest price: $19.99
Deal score: 9.8

Next up we have this 8GB CF card on sale at Office Depot for $19.99 while every other store is selling it for $33 or more.  Looking at the price trending graph, although the price of this card has dipped a couple times in the past, the price right now is the lowest we’ve ever seen for this memory card.  The CF card for my DSLR just died 2 weeks ago… if I was in the states I would jump on this real quick!

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Sandisk Ultra II 8GB at Office Depot

5 “Not” Deals

1.  Samsung – 46″ Class 1080p 120Hz LED Flat-Panel LCD HDTV at Best Buy

Advertised Black Friday Price: $1599.99
Regular Price: $2599
All time lowest price: $1489.10
Deal Score: 5.7

It was stated on the Best Buy Black Friday flyer that the regular price for this item was $2599.  However according to Gazaro’s records this item was only near that point in May of this year, and seems that the regular price since September has been $1850.  Instead of the $999 that they claim that you will save, you are actually saving $250.   We’ve seen lower prices than this in the past, and note that you can find this item cheaper on Abe’s of Maine for $1588.18.

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Samsung 46″ LED-LCD HDTV at Best Buy

2.  Sony – 770W 7.1-Ch. SIRIUS Satellite Radio-Ready A/V Home Theater Receiver at Best Buy

Advertised Black Friday Price: $279.99
Regular Price: $399.99
All time lowest price: $239.98

Looking at the price trend charts of other stores we can see that many stores have offered this product in the low $300’s or high $200’s and have been decreasing in price.  On Best Buy’s chart, we can see that the price was dropped to $299.99 for approximately a month, and then rose back up to $399.99 in November… probably in preparation for Black Friday?

That’s two tricks in a row, Best Buy…

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Checkout the Sony Home Theater Receiver at Best Buy

3. Sony KDL-32XBR9 32″ BRAVIA XBR® Series Black LCD Flat Panel HDTV at J&R

Advertised Black Friday Price: $599.99
Regular Price: $999.99
All time lowest price: $599.00
Deal score: 5.3

Does a product being advertised in the New York Times mean that it’s a good deal?  In this case – not at all.  First off, J&R claims that the regular price is $999.99, but according to our database, we haven’t seen that since March!  There’s at least 5 other stores that have this TV for the same price, and by looking at their price trending graphs we can see that this sale price is not a huge difference from the regular selling price.  Deal score of 5.3?  I’d say bad deal and another pricing trick to look out for.

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Sony KDL-32XBR9 32″ LCD HDTV at J&R

4. Canon Vixia HF200 Hi Def Flash Memory Camcorder

Advertised Black Friday Price: $549.00
Regular Price: $749.00
All time lowest price: $513.32
Deal score: 5.0

Saving $200 on a camcorder looks pretty good, and this price is the lowest that we’ve seen at J&R for this camcorder.  However, looking at the price trend chart we can see that this camcorder has been at the price of $549 since October.  This item was listed as a Black Friday sale item, but there was no price drop!  Also, if we look at the price trends at other stores, we can see that a couple other stores are following the same trend and are offering this item at the same price.  It may be a decent price for this camera, but definitely doesn’t look like a deal to me.

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Canon Vixia HF200 Hi Def Camcorder at Best Buy

5. Sony STR-DH800 7.1 Channel Home Theater A/V Receiver

Advertised Black Friday Price: $299.00
Regular Price: $399.00
All time lowest price: $239.98
Deal score: 4.6

The price trend graph looks great for J&R – consistently priced at $399 and dropping the price to $299 for Black Friday.  However if we take a look at some other stores, pretty much every store offers a lower price for this receiver!  Nice try J&R, but I’ll head to Amazon ($249.99) for this one.

Check out price charts and more on Gazaro
Check out the Sony STR-DH800 A/V Receiver at Best Buy

There definitely needs to be more transparency in how stores set their deals.  For a number of sale items that are in this post, the stores increased the price of the item a week before before bringing them down again so it seems like they’re giving huge discounts.  Some haven’t even dropped in price but are just advertised as a deal.  But until then, you can always rely on Gazaro to check if you’re getting the most out of your so called deal!

Related posts:

• Pre-Black Friday Sales – How Good a Deal are They?
• Tania’s Top 3 Black Friday Shopping Tips
• What if you Miss the Great Deals on Black Friday and Cyber Monday?
• The Gazaro Girls’ Red Hot Deal of the Week: BLACK FRIDAY EDITION!
• Find Deals on Heartbeats by Lady Gaga

Tagged as: 2009, Best Buy, bestbuy.com, Black Friday, black friday 2009, Buy.com, Deals, Gazaro, list, PC Mall, PCMall, Sony Style, SonyStyle, top 5